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Future transition from forests to shrublands and grasslands in the western United States is expected to reduce carbon storage

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AbstractClimate change is expected to impact vegetation in the western United States, leading to shifts in dominant Plant Functional Types and carbon storage. Here, we used a biogeographic model integrated with a biogeochemical model to predict changes in dominant Plant Functional Type by 2070‚àí2100. Results show that under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 scenario, 40% of the originally forested areas will transition to shrubland (7%) or grassland (32%), while under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario, 58% of forested areas shift to shrubland (18%) or grassland (40%). These shifts in Plant Functional Types result in a net overall loss in carbon storage equal to ‚àí60 gigagram of carbon and ‚àí82 gigagram of carbon under Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. Our findings highlight the need for urgent action to mitigate the effects of climate change on vegetation and carbon storage in the region.

Contributor(s)
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date Issued
2024-02-12
Language
English
Type
Genre
Form
electronic document
Media type
Creator role
Faculty
Identifier
2662-4435
Has this item been published elsewhere?
Volume
5
Volume
1
Kodero, . J. M., Felzer, . B. S., & Shi, . Y. (2024). (Vol. 1). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01253-6
Kodero, Jared M., Benjamin S. Felzer, and Yuning Shi. 2024. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01253-6.
Kodero, Jared M., et al. 12 Feb. 2024, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01253-6.